The experts say that although al-Qaeda and ISIS are no longer as centralised or powerful as they once were, networks affiliated with the groups have adapted to new conditions.
The US think tank published a report on Thursday, 10 September, titled “The State of Terrorism, 25 Years After 9/11”, presenting the views of 25 of its experts on how terrorist threats have evolved over the past quarter-century and what may come next.
The report notes that the September 11, 2001, attacks killed nearly 3,000 people and fundamentally reshaped the United States’ national security system. The attacks triggered the US-led “war on terror” and major changes to American intelligence and homeland security structures, but terrorism itself did not disappear.
‘War on terror’: Tactical success, strategic failure
Atlantic Council experts do not share a single view on whether the US war on terror was successful, but they argue that it cannot simply be described as either a success or a failure.
Omer Rafiq, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote that the United States achieved many tactical successes over the past 25 years, but successive US administrations never clearly defined when or under what conditions victory in the war on terror would be achieved.
He said more than 900,000 people were killed in direct violence linked to wars following the September 11 attacks, including more than 7,000 US service members.
According to Rafiq, the main problem was not the implementation of military operations, but policymaking and the lack of a clearly defined end goal for the wars.
The report also describes the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as having significant consequences for US foreign policy, saying that the end of the Afghanistan war and the withdrawal of US forces, together with the legacy of the Iraq war, have made the American public more sceptical about foreign interventions.
The changing nature of terrorism
According to Atlantic Council experts, terrorism today is fundamentally different from what it was in 2001.
Before the September 11 attacks, terrorist groups included separatist, nationalist, revolutionary and religious organisations. Al-Qaeda, however, introduced a different model: a transnational non-state actor that exploited areas with weak governance and was capable of organising complex attacks against targets far from its main bases.
Experts say that model has also changed.
Today’s terrorist networks are more decentralised, localised and digital, while groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS no longer exercise the same centralised control over all their supporters and affiliates.
Under these conditions, terrorist groups are increasingly involved in local conflicts, while terrorism has become intertwined with armed insurgencies, territorial control, illicit economies and local disputes.
The internet and social media have also made it easier for individuals to become radicalised and mobilised without direct orders from a central organisation.
Al-Qaeda and ISIS weaker but still active
The Atlantic Council says al-Qaeda and ISIS are no longer the large, organised and highly centralised organisations they once were, but both have adapted by creating and strengthening networks of affiliates and associated groups.
The report says an al-Qaeda-linked branch in Mali controls a significant amount of territory, while ISIS manages aspects of its global operations through networks based in Somalia.
According to the experts, the two groups still retain the ability to recruit members, distribute propaganda, inspire attacks and establish local networks.
Digital tools have also enabled them to spread extremist messages more quickly to people in different parts of the world.
Afghanistan remains a favourable environment for terrorist groups
One of the report’s key sections focuses on terrorism in Afghanistan and South Asia.
Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, wrote that the terrorism landscape in South Asia appears better than it did in the years leading up to September 11. Al-Qaeda is weaker, and many of the more than a dozen terrorist groups active in Afghanistan and Pakistan have limited operational capabilities.
However, he warned that the terrorist threat in the region should not be underestimated.
According to Kugelman, the Taliban administration, which has controlled Afghanistan again for the past five years, has ties or alliances with many terrorist groups operating in the region, ranging from Central Asian jihadist organisations to Pakistani militant groups.
He concluded that continued Taliban rule has created an environment favourable to armed groups.
IS-K remains a serious threat
The report describes Islamic State – Khorasan Province as one of the few genuinely powerful terrorist groups operating in the region.
According to the report, Taliban operations against IS-K in recent years have reduced the number of attacks carried out by the group but IS-K has managed to withstand security pressure and expand its capacity to conduct operations beyond the region.
The Atlantic Council says IS-K continues to retain the ability to recruit, spread propaganda and plan cross-border attacks, even while facing intense pressure from the Taliban.
Central Asia and Afghanistan’s role
In another section of the report, Atlantic Council experts warn that extremist groups, including IS-K, are likely to continue exploiting weak governance and social problems in Afghanistan and Central Asian countries in the near future.
According to the experts, one of the region’s biggest security challenges is the Taliban’s inability to prevent terrorist groups from operating inside Afghanistan.
The report also points to the activities of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and IS-K, saying the latter continues to recruit in Central Asian countries as well as Afghanistan.
It says some recruits from Tajikistan have been involved in IS-K-linked plots and attacks in Europe, the Philippines and the United States.
Experts predict that Afghanistan will remain a favourable environment for terrorist groups soon.
Terrorist threat shifts from large organisations to dispersed networks
The Atlantic Council stresses that one of the most significant changes over the past 25 years has been the shift from centralised terrorist organisations to dispersed networks.
According to the report, counterterrorism efforts in the past focused largely on identifying, tracking and eliminating the leadership of groups such as al-Qaeda.
Today, however, terrorist networks, local groups, self-radicalised individuals, illicit economies and state actors combine to create a more complex threat.
Artificial intelligence: A new tool for terrorist groups
One of the experts’ emerging concerns is the use of artificial intelligence by terrorist groups.
The report says terrorist organisations can use AI to produce propaganda, translate material, recruit members and target vulnerable audiences.
Experts also warn that advanced AI models could make some forms of technical knowledge more accessible to people without specialist expertise.
According to them, this could reduce technical barriers for terrorist groups in the future.
The report adds that ISIS-linked groups have already used AI to produce and distribute propaganda, and that advances in generative and automated models could allow them to create targeted content on a much larger scale.
Drones and cyberattacks
Drones are also identified in the Atlantic Council report as a potential future threat.
Experts say small, inexpensive and widely available drones could become effective tools for terrorist groups and could be used against crowded places, infrastructure and symbolic targets.
The report also warns about the potential combination of physical and cyberattacks.
According to the experts, a future cyberattack may not resemble a “cyber 9/11” but could instead support a physical attack by stealing information, disrupting security or communications systems, or interfering with emergency responses.
Critical infrastructure as a potential target
Atlantic Council experts say water, energy, transport, communications, healthcare and other critical infrastructure are becoming more vulnerable because of their growing dependence on digital systems.
They say weak digital security systems and outdated technology could increase the possibility of remote attacks.
Such attacks could involve malware, ransomware, disruption of navigation systems or AI-based tools.
Changes in terrorist financing
The report also examines the role of cryptocurrencies in terrorist financing.
Experts stress that cryptocurrencies are still not the main source of funding for terrorist organisations, with cash, state support and informal financial networks remaining more important.
However, new technologies have made it easier to transfer money outside traditional monitoring systems.
The report says groups such as IS-K have also used some privacy-focused cryptocurrencies to solicit donations.
The changing threat to the United States
The Atlantic Council says the terrorist threat to US territory has also changed since 2001.
According to the experts, the appeal of Salafi-jihadist ideology has declined compared with two decades ago, while al-Qaeda and ISIS have less capacity to carry out large-scale attacks inside the United States.
However, the threat from extremist groups, self-radicalised individuals and lone attackers remains.
Some Atlantic Council experts, meanwhile, say the threat to the United States from state-backed groups, particularly those supported by Iran, is increasing.
Declining counterterrorism resources
Atlantic Council experts also warn that as US competition with China and Russia intensifies, some funding and personnel previously dedicated to counterterrorism have been reduced.
They say the US intelligence and operational presence have declined in some regions, including South Asia and Africa, where ISIS activity is increasing.
The experts warn that a reduced US presence on the ground could weaken Washington’s ability to detect changes in terrorist networks at an early stage.
International cooperation remains essential
In its conclusion, the Atlantic Council stresses that counterterrorism over the past 25 years has depended heavily on cooperation between countries, intelligence sharing and coordination in security, diplomacy and finance.
The report says international cooperation must also evolve as terrorism changes, particularly to address self-radicalised individuals, domestic extremist groups, social media and new methods of terrorist financing.
Experts predict that attacks by inspired individuals, lone attackers and domestic extremist groups could increase in the future, requiring greater international cooperation on technology, intelligence and the regulation of digital platforms.
Overall, the Atlantic Council report concludes that terrorism has not disappeared 25 years after September 11, but has changed form, shifting from large, centralised organisations such as al-Qaeda towards dispersed, local and digital networks.
Afghanistan, along with parts of Africa and the Middle East, remains a source of concern, while technologies such as artificial intelligence, drones, cryptocurrencies and cyberattacks could reshape the terrorist threat in the years ahead.