The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) wrote in a report that attacks by opposition fronts do not pose a serious threat to the Taliban, and that the group has been able to maintain its military dominance in Afghanistan.
He predicted that the Taliban would likely be able to maintain this advantage for at least the next 12 months.
In a report to the US Congress, the US inspector general assessed the situation in Afghanistan during the months of July to September. The report was published on Monday, November 26.
The report also emphasised that the Afghanistan Freedom Front and the National Resistance Front, despite their attacks, have not yet posed a serious threat to the Taliban.
‘Doubts About Taliban's Ability To Confront ISIS’
According to the inspector general's report, ISIS-K has been able to increase its cross-border threats and become a regional and global threat. The report expressed doubts about the Taliban's ability to confront ISIS-K.
According to the US inspector general's report, ISIS-K has about 2,000 members, and despite pressure from the Taliban, the group is expanding its influence and strength.
‘ISIS-K Attacks On The Rise In Europe’
ISIS-K is using facilitation networks in Afghanistan and Turkiye to transport troops to Europe, the US inspector general said. The group's simpler, but more frequent attacks are expected to increase in Europe over the next year.
The report explains that one of the main factors behind ISIS-K's success in carrying out transnational attacks is access to weapons, level of military training, ability to evade counterterrorism measures, and identification of effective targets.
ISIS-K targets Afghans and citizens of Central Asian countries who have migrated to Europe or are planning to travel to Europe for asylum.
The US inspector general's report indicates that the group derives part of its financial resources from the main branch of ISIS and has recently switched to using international aid and cryptocurrencies.
‘Al-Qaeda's Strategic Patience’
The US inspector general also reported that al-Qaeda in Afghanistan continues to operate without attracting attention. According to the report, after the US withdrawal in 2021, Taliban leaders may have decided to follow the peace agreement with the US in Doha in 2020 and not allow al-Qaeda to carry out cross-border attacks.
However, the report suggests that some prominent al-Qaeda figures have recently traveled to Afghanistan, which may be a sign of training, recruitment, and reorganisation activities.
The report also raised concerns about cooperation between al-Qaeda and the TTP. According to the report, this cooperation could pose a threat beyond the region. The US inspector general's report states that al-Qaeda has exercised "strategic patience" in its relations with the Taliban.
According to the report, the United States continues to pressure the Taliban to secure the rights of women and girls and will not normalise its relations with the Taliban until these rights are restored.
The US State Department stressed that the Taliban have not fulfilled their promises in August 2021 to respect the rights of women and girls and have returned to the repressive policies they pursued in the 1990s.
"Although the Taliban is sensitive to international criticism, there is no sign of a willingness to change its domestic policies under international pressure," the report shows.
‘Regional Concerns’
According to the report, the countries of the region are concerned about the situation in Afghanistan. Despite maintaining diplomatic relations with the Taliban, these countries are concerned about the expansion of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The countries of the region have called on the Taliban to fight terrorist groups in a tangible way.
Pakistan accuses the Taliban of supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad says that Afghan soil is being used against the country. The Islamic Republic is afraid of the activities of ISIS and Jaish al-Adl on its borders. However, the Taliban has stressed that Afghanistan's soil will not be used against the countries of the region and the world.
The US Inspector General serves as the coordinator of surveillance reports and assessments related to the country's security and defence operations.
