According to United Nations data, more than 2.8 million people returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan in 2025 alone.
The total number of returnees since September 2023 has exceeded three million.
The UN estimates that if the trend continues in 2026, a further two million people could be returned.
Stephanie Loose, Country Programme Manager for UN-Habitat Afghanistan, said this surge has increased Afghanistan’s population by over 10 percent, a rise that would challenge even more developed countries.
Internal displacement
The UN-Habitat country programme manager said more than 3.06 million people were recorded as internally displaced in Afghanistan between 2021 and 2025, accounting for around 6 percent of the population.
She noted that since 2021, climate change, not conflict, has become the main driver of displacement, with Afghanistan ranking among the 10 most climate-vulnerable countries.
Loose said many returnees arrive with only what they can carry and face highly vulnerable conditions.
“Many returnees arrive with little more than what they can carry. Initially, some try to go to areas where they have family connections, but for many, especially those who have been away for years, those ties have weakened or no longer exist.” she said.
The UN says many then move to cities in search of services and jobs, contributing to the rapid growth of informal settlements.
It estimates that up to 70 percent of urban areas in Afghanistan are now informal and unplanned.
Observations show residents in such areas face severe shortages of housing and limited access to water, sanitation, education and healthcare.
The UN official stressed that the key challenge is the sustainable integration of returnees.
She added that their main needs include housing, land access, water and sanitation, education, healthcare, and, most importantly, livelihoods.