Nikkei Asia says continued clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan, along with failed Chinese mediation, have complicated Afghanistan’s security situation and could increase the risk of renewed civil war.
The Japanese outlet warned that continued tensions could strengthen armed groups opposed to the Taliban and increase the risk of Afghanistan sliding back into civil war.
In an article published on Friday, 9 October, Nikkei Asia said recent clashes between the Afghanistan Freedom Front and Taliban forces showed that groups opposing the Taliban administration were stepping up their military activities.
The publication also pointed to growing tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, saying China’s efforts to ease the dispute had so far failed.
China hosted talks between the Taliban and Pakistan in May 2025, followed by negotiations in Kabul in August that year. In April 2026, China hosted seven days of talks in Urumqi and urged both sides to avoid further escalation and work towards a comprehensive agreement. However, none of the negotiations or mediation efforts has yet produced a breakthrough.
Two Pakistani government officials told Nikkei Asia that the failure of peace efforts had encouraged anti-Taliban groups to intensify their attacks. One official said these groups expected fighting between the Taliban and Pakistan to expand if the deadlock in bilateral relations continued.
Experts interviewed by Nikkei Asia said continued clashes with Pakistan could weaken the Taliban.
They were also not optimistic that differences between Kabul and Islamabad would be resolved quickly through Chinese mediation, stressing that the success of such efforts would depend on the willingness and readiness of both sides to reach an agreement.
Nikkei Asia warned that increased activity by anti-Taliban groups, combined with continued tensions with Pakistan, could reverse progress towards peace and push Afghanistan towards wider violence or even renewed civil war.
The report comes as continuing border clashes with Pakistan and increased activity by armed groups opposed to the Taliban have added to the security challenges facing the Taliban administration.
Iranian MP Mohsen Zangeneh has walked back remarks about allocating more than 110 hectares of land in Chabahar to Afghanistan, saying no Iranian territory has been handed over.
Responding on Friday, 9 October, to widespread criticism of his earlier remarks, Zangeneh said claims that 110 hectares of Iranian territory had been handed over to Afghanistan were false reports spread by media opposed to the Islamic Republic.
He said his previous comments referred to allocating about 10 hectares of land at Chabahar port and around 100 hectares within the port’s free zone for Afghan investment.
Zangeneh added that Afghanistan could develop infrastructure such as a dry port in the designated area and said the purpose of the arrangement was to facilitate the country’s access to international waters.
he said that the meaning of this understanding is that Afghanistan can invest in this area and that it did not involve transferring Iranian territory or sovereignty.
Zangeneh also said Iran was prepared to welcome Afghan investment along its southern coast, including in the Makran region and Chabahar, while expanding its own investments in Afghanistan.
On Thursday, Zangeneh told Sahar TV that under a preliminary understanding, about 10 hectares of land on the Chabahar coast and more than 100 hectares in the port’s special economic zone were to be allocated for Afghanistan.
He had said that talks with Taliban officials had resulted in an agreement allowing Afghanistan to have an area of its own within the Chabahar Free Zone.
Zangeneh also said the Taliban had requested additional coastal land in Chabahar, but that no final agreement had been reached because of limited land availability.
During an Iranian delegation’s visit to Kabul, he also reported talks on increasing trade between Iran and Afghanistan to $10 billion, establishing a joint industrial town or park and expanding industrial cooperation.
His remarks drew widespread reaction on Iranian social media, with some users and critics interpreting the proposal as a transfer of Iranian territory to Afghanistan.
However, Chabahar’s governor also denied reports that land in the county was being transferred to foreign nationals, saying no request had been submitted, and no executive action or land transfer had taken place.
Mehdi Arab-Sadegh, a critic of the proposal, wrote on X in a message addressed to Zangeneh that you pushed total out to bring in the Taliban?! blood has been shed for every inch of this land.
Referring to Article 77 of Iran’s constitution, he also questioned on what basis Zangeneh and Iran’s industry minister had reached such an agreement and presented it to Afghanistan as good news.
Chabahar has in recent years become an important alternative route connecting Afghan trade to international waters. Rising tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan and repeated closures of their commercial crossings have increased the importance of Iranian trade routes for Afghanistan.
India also plays a role in developing and operating Chabahar port and considers it an important route for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
The International Organization for Migration says more than 6.5 million Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan over the past three years, warning that Afghanistan lacks the capacity to absorb them.
The organisation published the third part of its report on the situation and reintegration of Afghan returnees on Thursday, 8 October. The report examined undocumented migrants who had spent at least eight months in Afghanistan after returning.
Poverty, unemployment, lack of shelter and limited access to basic services were identified as some of the main challenges facing returnees as they try to reintegrate.
According to the report, 53 per cent of assessed returnees aged 14 or older had no access to education, while 50 per cent remained unemployed. It also found that 54 per cent of returnee households were unable to meet their basic needs.
The report also described the housing situation as concerning. It found that 77 per cent of assessed returnees were living in temporary accommodation and 51 per cent did not have enough living space.
The International Organization for Migration said a lack of documentation was also preventing access to essential services. Only 21 per cent of households said all family members had identity documents, while 43 per cent lacked documents required to access essential services.
According to the report, food, shelter and cash assistance were the most urgent needs among returnees.
It also found that 75 per cent faced difficulties accessing disaster-response services, 62 per cent had problems accessing healthcare, 61 per cent lacked adequate access to electricity and 53 per cent struggled to obtain drinking water.
Meanwhile, 75 per cent of returnees who took part in the survey said they did not intend to leave their current place of residence. However, the report showed that employment and income opportunities had a direct influence on their future decisions.
According to the findings, 16 per cent of returnees said they wanted to leave Afghanistan again. That figure stood at 11 per cent in the first phase of the assessment and five per cent in the second.
Iran and Pakistan have intensified the deportation of Afghan migrants in recent years. The returns have continued despite many people facing unemployment, poverty, inadequate shelter and limited access to essential services after arriving in Afghanistan.
International organisations and human rights groups have repeatedly warned about the consequences of forcibly returning Afghan migrants from Iran and Pakistan and have called for the process to be halted.
They say returnees in Afghanistan face a severe economic crisis, unemployment, shortages of adequate shelter and limited access to basic services.
The US State Department says the Taliban made no meaningful effort to combat human trafficking in 2026, leaving Afghanistan in the lowest tier of its annual report.
The report said Afghanistan lacks a system for identifying trafficking victims and referring them to support services.
It said the recruitment and use of children in combat and support roles continued during the reporting period, along with the sexual exploitation of boys through the practice known as “Bacha Bazi”.
The US State Department said the Taliban reported no investigations, prosecutions or convictions of human traffickers and provided no information showing that victims had been identified or supported.
New Taliban decree and penalties deemed insufficient
Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada issued a decree around two years ago banning human trafficking and calling for such cases to be addressed.
According to the report, the decree prohibits human trafficking and provides prison sentences of between one and three years for first and subsequent offences.
However, the US State Department said Taliban authorities were not meeting the minimum standards required to eliminate human trafficking.
It said the decree does not provide a clear definition of human trafficking and that the penalties are not sufficiently stringent to deter the crime. The report also said some provisions appear to implicitly recognise concepts associated with slavery.
Legal experts have also raised concerns about the lack of clear definitions, the conflation of human trafficking with migrant smuggling, the absence of explicit protections for defence lawyers and reliance on confessions without sufficient safeguards against coercion.
Child recruitment and bacha bazi continue
The report said the Taliban and other armed groups continue to unlawfully recruit and use children in combat and support roles.
According to the US State Department, the Taliban uses coercion and deception to recruit children, some of whom are drawn from religious schools in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The report said groups including ISIS-K and the National Resistance Front also use children in direct fighting, transporting and planting explosives, carrying weapons, spying and guarding bases.
The US State Department also said that despite bacha bazi being formally prohibited, the practice continues and observers have reported the involvement of Taliban members.
Under the practice, boys, typically aged between 10 and 18, are subjected to sexual exploitation and used for entertainment.
According to the report, the Taliban has made no effective effort to protect victims of bacha bazi or end the practice.
Lack of adequate support for trafficking victims
The report said the Taliban had not reported identifying any trafficking victims or providing services to them, and that there were no regular and effective mechanisms for identifying victims and referring them to support centres.
According to the report, security forces sometimes detain potential victims, including children begging on the streets, without screening them for signs of trafficking.
Some child victims are also held in detention facilities alongside adults, exposing them to forced labour, physical violence and sexual abuse.
The US State Department said Taliban restrictions on non-governmental organisations, the ban on women working in most sectors and the detention of female employees for travelling without a mahram have made it more difficult to provide support services to victims.
A lack of funding and specialised facilities for adult victims were also identified as major problems.
The report also warned that Taliban corporal punishments for what it considers moral offences, including sex outside marriage, could discourage victims of sex trafficking from reporting abuse because they may themselves be punished for acts, they were forced to commit as a result of trafficking and exploitation.
However, the report noted that 58 children were released from Taliban ranks with the assistance of an international organisation.
Following discussions with the Taliban, the organisation helped secure the children’s release and supported their return to civilian life.
Growing vulnerability of women, children and migrants
The US State Department said women, men and children inside and outside Afghanistan are subjected to forced labour, debt bondage and sexual exploitation.
According to the report, trafficking within Afghanistan is more widespread than cross-border trafficking.
Children are exploited in sectors including carpet weaving, brickmaking, domestic work, agriculture, mining, construction, begging, lorry driving and the trafficking of drugs and weapons.
The report added that some poor or indebted families sell their children to traffickers or force underage girls into marriage in exchange for money.
According to the US State Department, Taliban restrictions on the movement of women and girls and their access to education and employment have increased their vulnerability to exploitation.
Women, girls and families returning to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan, internally displaced people and those associated with the former government are also at greater risk.
The report said some Afghans pay intermediaries to help them find work in countries including Iran, Pakistan, Türkiye and European states, but some of these intermediaries and employers force them into labour or sexual exploitation.
Afghan men and boys, particularly in agriculture and construction in Iran, Pakistan, Greece, Türkiye and Gulf countries, also face forced labour and debt bondage.
The report said some Afghan refugees in Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Türkiye, Europe and Central Asia do not report exploitation to authorities because they fear deportation to Afghanistan.
Lack of effective prevention measures
The US State Department said Taliban authorities had failed to take effective measures to prevent human trafficking.
According to the report, relevant authorities had neither maintained an inter-agency working group against trafficking nor effectively implemented a national action plan.
The report said that although the Taliban issued a decree during the previous reporting period declaring human trafficking illegal under Islamic law and ordering relevant authorities to coordinate, investigate cases and conduct public awareness activities, it provided no evidence that these measures had been implemented.
It also said there had been no effective action to prevent the unlawful recruitment of children or reduce demand for commercial sexual exploitation.
The US State Department said Taliban restrictions on the rights of women and minorities, as well as limits on the work of non-governmental organisations, had created conditions that increased the vulnerability of at-risk groups and obstructed support for trafficking victims.
Sources told Afghanistan International that the Taliban barred women from entering the Imam Abu Hanifa International Exhibition in Kabul, including Afghan women and invited female visitors from India and Iran.
Sources told Afghanistan International on Thursday, 8 October, that women had been prohibited from entering the exhibition grounds and that only men were allowed to attend the event.
According to the sources, several Indian and Iranian women who had been invited by their countries’ representatives to visit the exhibition or attend stands also faced restrictions imposed by Taliban personnel and were not allowed into different sections of the venue.
One source at the site said: “Afghan women are not even allowed into the exhibition grounds and can only watch from behind closed gates. Some Iranian women who were present at the venue were also not allowed to enter the stands.”
Sources said members of the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice were stationed at the exhibition entrances and prevented women from entering. They said the restriction continued on the second day of the event.
The fifth national and international Imam Abu Hanifa Exhibition opened in Kabul on Wednesday, 7 October, with hundreds of domestic and foreign companies taking part. The seven-day event is being held at the Afghanistan International Exhibition Centre in Chaman-e-Hozori.
Meanwhile, Fawzia Koofi, a women’s rights activist and former Afghan MP, criticised the Taliban’s treatment of women at the exhibition and said several women had been detained during the event.
Koofi said the Taliban were portraying the exhibition as a success while women had not only been denied the right to have independent stands, but some had also been beaten and detained.
She also criticised the presence of foreign officials and guests at the exhibition, asking whether they would accept such treatment of women in their own countries.
Koofi added that the continued participation of foreign figures and delegations in such events risked legitimising and normalising policies that exclude women from public life.
The Taliban has not yet responded to reports that women were barred from the Imam Abu Hanifa Exhibition or to allegations that women were detained and mistreated.
The Indian and Iranian embassies have also not yet commented on the reports.
Elisenda Calvet, a judge at the People’s Tribunal for Women of Afghanistan, said in Madrid that after five years of Taliban rule, conditions had not improved and the outlook remained bleak.
Public hearings of the People’s Tribunal for Women of Afghanistan were held last year in Madrid, Spain, beginning on 8 October and concluding on 10 October. Prosecutors presented an indictment, while Afghan women and girls testified as victims of Taliban rule.
Speaking on Thursday at an event marking the first anniversary of the tribunal, Calvet said it was a civil society initiative created from within society and centred on people rather than governments.
She said the tribunal nevertheless followed the formal structure of a court, including prosecutors, judges, witnesses and the issuing of a judgement.
According to Calvet, the tribunal’s panel of judges and experts came from a range of professional backgrounds, including law, psychology, journalism and Islamic law.
She added that gender-based violence was examined as a criminal matter rather than a cultural issue.
Calvet said the hearings were held in Madrid and the tribunal heard testimony from 24 Afghan women living both inside and outside Afghanistan.
She said organisers sought to include women from different ethnic groups and social backgrounds to make the process as inclusive as possible.
The tribunal judge also stressed that some witnesses faced security risks. Although the Taliban did not participate in the hearings, she said the group was monitoring the proceedings, creating risks for some of those who testified.
Calvet said initiatives of this kind were important for advocacy and for strengthening confidence in the law at a time when concerns were growing over the state of international law.
She said developments in Afghanistan amounted to a system of laws, decrees and structures that systematically targeted women and girls.
Calvet added that Afghan women had also used the term “gender apartheid” during the Taliban’s first period in power in the 1990s, saying the situation was not a new phenomenon.
She reiterated that the tribunal treated gender-based violence as a criminal matter rather than a cultural issue.
The tribunal says its aim is to draw global attention to the targeted repression of Afghan women and girls under Taliban rule, document crimes against humanity, particularly gender-based discrimination and persecution, and increase international pressure to hold the Taliban accountable.