Zalmay Khalilzad’s recent visit to Kabul, accompanied by President Donald Trump’s special envoy for hostage affairs and coinciding with the Taliban’s release of a US citizen, marks the gradual resurgence of the United States’ informal bargaining diplomacy with Kabul.
In this article, former Afghan spy chief, Rahmatullah Nabil, explores Afghanistan’s prospective position within global geopolitical equations.
More than a century after the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, which defined the modern structure of the Middle East, the notion of a "New Middle East" emerged in 2006, articulated by Condoleezza Rice, then US National Security Advisor. This ambitious vision encountered substantial obstacles due to the region’s persistent political and security turmoil. Following the events of 7 October 2023, the Israeli Prime Minister revisited the concept of a "New Middle East." With Donald Trump’s return to power, this idea has regained prominence in geopolitical discussions.
Within this framework, US foreign policy, centred on countering China, necessitates reliable regional allies such as Russia, India, and Israel. These developments raise two pivotal questions:
Historically, Afghanistan has occupied a critical juncture in geopolitical conflicts. Today, amidst the redefinition of global strategies and the realignment of regional and transregional actors, Afghanistan has assumed renewed significance. Where does contemporary Afghanistan stand in the global power game? No longer merely a battleground, it has evolved into a vital instrument for countering China, curbing Iran’s influence, balancing Central Asia (either in cooperation or competition with Russia), and mitigating potential crises in Pakistan.
Afghanistan once again finds itself at the epicentre of the "Great Game"—no longer confined to an East-West rivalry but embedded within a more intricate equation involving emerging powers (China, India, and Iran), established powers (the US and Russia), and a web of regional players with conflicting interests. Khalilzad’s visit to Kabul, alongside the Taliban’s release of an American citizen, underscores the re-emergence of informal US diplomacy with Kabul. This approach prioritises maintaining open communication channels for potential contingencies rather than pursuing formal recognition.
Amidst this dynamic, several developments—including the return of figures like Haqqani, Pakistan’s allegations against the Taliban and India, the prospect of a US-Russia rapprochement, possible concessions to Russia in Ukraine, escalating tensions with Iran, and an increasingly assertive foreign policy—point to emerging regional consultations and potential behind-the-scenes recalibrations of Afghanistan’s future role.
Afghanistan’s Role in the Strategy to Contain China
As the world’s second-largest economy, China relies heavily on stable energy supplies and trade routes. Key statistics underscore this dependence:
The Strait of Malacca, a critical geopolitical chokepoint for China, remains highly vulnerable. The US and its allies, under the QUAD alliance, seek to dominate this route and restrict China’s energy access as part of their containment strategy. In this context, Afghanistan assumes dual significance:
The Taliban’s Internal Power Struggle: The Kandahar-Kabul Divide
Afghanistan is not solely a theatre for external competition; within the Taliban, a profound schism has emerged between the Kandahar and Kabul factions. The Kandahar faction, led by Hibatullah Akhundzada, maintains ideological ties with Iran’s religious institutions and staunchly opposes engagement with the West. In contrast, the Kabul faction exhibits pragmatic tendencies, favouring cooperation with select regional stakeholders and Western allies while pursuing reforms to alleviate economic pressures.
Iran aligns more closely with the Kandahar faction, whereas certain regional and international actors interested in engaging the Taliban maintain broader ties with Kabul. This tension not only exacerbates the Taliban’s internal divide but also creates a potential platform for future proxy rivalries.
China and Iran: Expanding Influences
Over the past three and a half years, China and Iran have bolstered their influence in Afghanistan—not through formal recognition of the Taliban, but via economic, security, and cultural cooperation.
This growing influence has disrupted Afghanistan’s internal equilibrium, raising concerns among the US and its allies.
Future Scenarios for Iran and Their Impact on Afghanistan
Iran faces a critical juncture with three potential pathways:
A) Normalisation with the West:
By distancing itself from the China-Russia axis, reducing support for proxy forces, and abandoning its nuclear and missile programmes, Tehran could enter a new diplomatic phase. This shift might result in:
B) Military Conflict with the US/Israel:
Should Iran engage in direct conflict with the West, Afghanistan could become inadvertently entangled. In this scenario:
C) Collapse or Internal Instability in Iran:
Ethnic, religious, and economic unrest—particularly in Sistan and Baluchestan—could significantly affect Afghanistan’s western borders, triggering migration crises, insecurity, and religious tensions. Should such crises escalate:
India: A Rising Power with Strategic Objectives in Afghanistan
As an ascendant Asian power, India plays an increasingly vital role in Afghanistan’s geopolitical landscape. Competing with China and Pakistan on security and economic fronts, New Delhi has sought to secure a stable foothold through developmental investments, soft power, and regional collaboration. Projects such as the Salma Dam, the Afghan Parliament building, the Chabahar Port (developed with Iran), and support for educational and cultural initiatives reflect India’s broader strategy to counterbalance China’s influence and mitigate threats from the China-Pakistan axis. As a key US partner in the QUAD security pact, India views Afghanistan as integral to the West’s containment strategy against China. With intensifying regional competition, India’s influence could prove decisive in shaping Afghanistan’s security and economic future.
Pakistan: From Strategic Ally to Potential Risk
Pakistan faces mounting fragility:
Such developments directly affect Afghanistan, potentially destabilising its eastern borders and heightening tensions in border regions. Movements among Baloch and Pashtun communities, alongside other disaffected ethnic and religious groups, could reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics.
Three Major Scenarios for Afghanistan’s Future
These developments suggest three possible trajectories for Afghanistan:
Lost Opportunities and Narrowing Horizons
Over the past two decades, Afghanistan squandered multiple opportunities to emerge as an independent or influential player due to corruption, political mismanagement, regional meddling, and reliance on foreign aid. Today, under Taliban governance and without a robust opposition, these windows of opportunity are closing as the "Great Game" nears its final configuration.
Rebuilding the National Image: A Foundation for Independence
For Afghanistan to transition from a geopolitical tool to an autonomous actor, it must reconstruct a national and political identity encompassing all ethnic groups, movements, and generations. This requires:
Without a shared, equitable national narrative, Afghanistan cannot break free from its subordinate role in regional politics.
Conclusion: The Future Game Requires the Afghan People
Recent events—the US delegation, Haqqani’s return, the expanding influence of China and Iran, Pakistan’s accusations against the Taliban and India, and rising tensions with the West—signal Afghanistan’s entry into a new phase of the "Great Game." Yet, modern Afghan history demonstrates that neither the Taliban, the US, Iran, nor China will hold ultimate sway. The Afghan people, if they choose to act, possess the power to transform themselves from pawns into independent players. Our future need not be dictated by others; with resolve, we can author it ourselves.
