Imtiaz Gul, head of Pakistan’s Centre for Research and Security Studies, wrote in an article published by The Express Tribune on Saturday, 10 October, that recent remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about the Taliban administration and its fight against ISIS had raised serious questions about Moscow’s objectives.
He said Lavrov told participants at the Moscow Format meeting on 5 October that they should acknowledge that the Taliban administration had successfully governed the country. Lavrov also praised Taliban security forces for fighting ISIS and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
Gul said Russia had in July referred to ISIS as “Islamic State-Khorasan Province” and described it as a threat based in Afghanistan. However, he said Lavrov did not use that term on 6 October and instead described the Pakistani branch of ISIS as a group carrying out terrorist attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
According to Gul, this apparent shift strengthens the Taliban’s narrative about ISIS activity in the region. The Taliban claims ISIS centres are in Pakistan and are used to conduct operations against neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan.
He questioned whether Moscow’s decision to move away from the term “Khorasan Province” and adopt language closer to the Taliban’s narrative was coincidental or part of a broader change in Russia’s calculations towards Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Gul also pointed to Lavrov’s opposition to the deployment of NATO military infrastructure in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries, arguing that Moscow remains deeply concerned about a renewed Western military presence in the region.
He suggested that by moving closer to the Taliban, Russia could be sending a political message to the United States and Pakistan. According to Gul, Moscow may be prepared to assist Kabul in countering threats if Washington and Islamabad support armed groups opposed to the Taliban.
The Pakistani security analyst also cited Russia’s allegations that ammunition had been supplied from Pakistan to Ukraine as another possible factor in Moscow’s changing calculations. He wrote that Russia may now see Pakistan as aligned with the US- and European-led coalition supporting Ukraine.
Gul questioned whether these changes in relations between Russia, the Taliban and Pakistan could also explain why the latest Moscow Format meeting ended without a joint statement or a significant outcome.
Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan have become increasingly strained in recent months. Both sides accuse each other of supporting armed groups, while clashes along the border have also increased.
Russia is the only country to have formally recognised the Taliban administration. Moscow has expanded its ties with Kabul this year and supported greater political and economic engagement with the Taliban.
The Taliban has repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting ISIS. Following recent attacks by Taliban opponents in Nuristan and Badakhshan, Taliban authorities also suggested that ISIS might have played a role in the fighting.
However, observers say claims linking armed Taliban opponents to ISIS are not supported by available evidence. Fighting in Nuristan and Badakhshan has largely involved the Afghanistan Freedom Front, which includes former members of Afghanistan’s security forces. No independent evidence of ISIS involvement in those clashes has been presented.
The Moscow Format meeting brought together representatives from Russia, the Taliban, Pakistan, Iran, China and several other regional countries. Russia sought to mediate between the Taliban and Pakistan, but their disagreements overshadowed the talks.
The Taliban delegation rejected the proposed wording of the final declaration, and the meeting ended without a joint statement. Pakistan said its disagreement with the Taliban was substantive and was not merely about wording.