In this article, former Afghan spy chief, Rahmatullah Nabil, explores Afghanistan’s prospective position within global geopolitical equations.
More than a century after the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, which defined the modern structure of the Middle East, the notion of a "New Middle East" emerged in 2006, articulated by Condoleezza Rice, then US National Security Advisor. This ambitious vision encountered substantial obstacles due to the region’s persistent political and security turmoil. Following the events of 7 October 2023, the Israeli Prime Minister revisited the concept of a "New Middle East." With Donald Trump’s return to power, this idea has regained prominence in geopolitical discussions.
Within this framework, US foreign policy, centred on countering China, necessitates reliable regional allies such as Russia, India, and Israel. These developments raise two pivotal questions:
- Will Afghanistan once again be relegated to a geopolitical pawn in the global power struggle?
- Or can it carve out a role as an independent actor?
Historically, Afghanistan has occupied a critical juncture in geopolitical conflicts. Today, amidst the redefinition of global strategies and the realignment of regional and transregional actors, Afghanistan has assumed renewed significance. Where does contemporary Afghanistan stand in the global power game? No longer merely a battleground, it has evolved into a vital instrument for countering China, curbing Iran’s influence, balancing Central Asia (either in cooperation or competition with Russia), and mitigating potential crises in Pakistan.
Afghanistan once again finds itself at the epicentre of the "Great Game"—no longer confined to an East-West rivalry but embedded within a more intricate equation involving emerging powers (China, India, and Iran), established powers (the US and Russia), and a web of regional players with conflicting interests. Khalilzad’s visit to Kabul, alongside the Taliban’s release of an American citizen, underscores the re-emergence of informal US diplomacy with Kabul. This approach prioritises maintaining open communication channels for potential contingencies rather than pursuing formal recognition.
Amidst this dynamic, several developments—including the return of figures like Haqqani, Pakistan’s allegations against the Taliban and India, the prospect of a US-Russia rapprochement, possible concessions to Russia in Ukraine, escalating tensions with Iran, and an increasingly assertive foreign policy—point to emerging regional consultations and potential behind-the-scenes recalibrations of Afghanistan’s future role.
Afghanistan’s Role in the Strategy to Contain China
As the world’s second-largest economy, China relies heavily on stable energy supplies and trade routes. Key statistics underscore this dependence:
- 70 percent of its oil consumption is imported.
- 80 percent of these imports traverse the Strait of Malacca.
- 45 percent of its natural gas consumption is also imported.
The Strait of Malacca, a critical geopolitical chokepoint for China, remains highly vulnerable. The US and its allies, under the QUAD alliance, seek to dominate this route and restrict China’s energy access as part of their containment strategy. In this context, Afghanistan assumes dual significance:
- As an alternative corridor for energy and trade transit, serving not only China but also India, Pakistan, and even Europe.
- As a destabilised zone capable of disrupting initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Gwadar Port.
The Taliban’s Internal Power Struggle: The Kandahar-Kabul Divide
Afghanistan is not solely a theatre for external competition; within the Taliban, a profound schism has emerged between the Kandahar and Kabul factions. The Kandahar faction, led by Hibatullah Akhundzada, maintains ideological ties with Iran’s religious institutions and staunchly opposes engagement with the West. In contrast, the Kabul faction exhibits pragmatic tendencies, favouring cooperation with select regional stakeholders and Western allies while pursuing reforms to alleviate economic pressures.
Iran aligns more closely with the Kandahar faction, whereas certain regional and international actors interested in engaging the Taliban maintain broader ties with Kabul. This tension not only exacerbates the Taliban’s internal divide but also creates a potential platform for future proxy rivalries.
China and Iran: Expanding Influences
Over the past three and a half years, China and Iran have bolstered their influence in Afghanistan—not through formal recognition of the Taliban, but via economic, security, and cultural cooperation.
- Iran, particularly in western and southwestern Afghanistan, has cultivated soft power by establishing direct communication with the Kandahar faction through trusted intermediaries, leveraging media, religious institutions, and support for local groups.
- China, prioritising the security of mining projects and addressing concerns over the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, has forged both direct and indirect partnerships with the Taliban.
This growing influence has disrupted Afghanistan’s internal equilibrium, raising concerns among the US and its allies.
Future Scenarios for Iran and Their Impact on Afghanistan
Iran faces a critical juncture with three potential pathways:
A) Normalisation with the West:
By distancing itself from the China-Russia axis, reducing support for proxy forces, and abandoning its nuclear and missile programmes, Tehran could enter a new diplomatic phase. This shift might result in:
- A potential decline in Iran’s support for the Taliban or affiliated groups.
- Opportunities for other powers and internal Afghan forces to assume greater roles.
- Prospects for regional cooperation and investment if Afghan leaders capitalise on this opening—though failure to act could allow other actors to fill the void.
B) Military Conflict with the US/Israel:
Should Iran engage in direct conflict with the West, Afghanistan could become inadvertently entangled. In this scenario:
- Iran might exploit Afghan territory as strategic depth for its proxy groups.
- Tehran could mobilise allied religious and political factions or local commanders against Western interests or rivals, potentially intensifying activities by groups like ISIS and Jish al-Adl in proxy conflicts.
- Afghanistan’s security and international relations would face heightened complexity.
- The West might escalate pressure on Afghanistan to prevent Iran from leveraging its territory.
C) Collapse or Internal Instability in Iran:
Ethnic, religious, and economic unrest—particularly in Sistan and Baluchestan—could significantly affect Afghanistan’s western borders, triggering migration crises, insecurity, and religious tensions. Should such crises escalate:
- Spillover effects could destabilise Afghanistan’s western regions.
- A surge in migrants, economic challenges, arms trafficking, or sectarian strife might emerge.
- Extremist groups could exploit the disorder to gain traction.
- Iran might intensify interference in Afghanistan to deflect domestic attention.
India: A Rising Power with Strategic Objectives in Afghanistan
As an ascendant Asian power, India plays an increasingly vital role in Afghanistan’s geopolitical landscape. Competing with China and Pakistan on security and economic fronts, New Delhi has sought to secure a stable foothold through developmental investments, soft power, and regional collaboration. Projects such as the Salma Dam, the Afghan Parliament building, the Chabahar Port (developed with Iran), and support for educational and cultural initiatives reflect India’s broader strategy to counterbalance China’s influence and mitigate threats from the China-Pakistan axis. As a key US partner in the QUAD security pact, India views Afghanistan as integral to the West’s containment strategy against China. With intensifying regional competition, India’s influence could prove decisive in shaping Afghanistan’s security and economic future.
Pakistan: From Strategic Ally to Potential Risk
Pakistan faces mounting fragility:
- Escalating ethnic, political, security, religious, and economic crises.
- Pressure from India and the US to distance itself from China.
- The possibility of military collapse and nuclear disarmament amid these challenges.
Such developments directly affect Afghanistan, potentially destabilising its eastern borders and heightening tensions in border regions. Movements among Baloch and Pashtun communities, alongside other disaffected ethnic and religious groups, could reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics.
Three Major Scenarios for Afghanistan’s Future
These developments suggest three possible trajectories for Afghanistan:
- Stabilisation of controlled instability: The Taliban retains power but remains under pressure, lacking internal and external legitimacy.
- Gradual integration into the global order: Mullah Hibatullah and his allies are sidelined, and new leadership secures relative recognition through modest reforms.
- Internal transformation: Widespread dissatisfaction, bolstered by external support, gives rise to a new force. If underpinned by a national, transnational, and independent discourse, this scenario could upend the current order.
Lost Opportunities and Narrowing Horizons
Over the past two decades, Afghanistan squandered multiple opportunities to emerge as an independent or influential player due to corruption, political mismanagement, regional meddling, and reliance on foreign aid. Today, under Taliban governance and without a robust opposition, these windows of opportunity are closing as the "Great Game" nears its final configuration.
Rebuilding the National Image: A Foundation for Independence
For Afghanistan to transition from a geopolitical tool to an autonomous actor, it must reconstruct a national and political identity encompassing all ethnic groups, movements, and generations. This requires:
- Establishing an inclusive, justice-oriented national dialogue.
- Moving beyond monopolistic policies and ideological constraints.
- Forging a new social contract for coexistence and political participation.
Without a shared, equitable national narrative, Afghanistan cannot break free from its subordinate role in regional politics.
Conclusion: The Future Game Requires the Afghan People
Recent events—the US delegation, Haqqani’s return, the expanding influence of China and Iran, Pakistan’s accusations against the Taliban and India, and rising tensions with the West—signal Afghanistan’s entry into a new phase of the "Great Game." Yet, modern Afghan history demonstrates that neither the Taliban, the US, Iran, nor China will hold ultimate sway. The Afghan people, if they choose to act, possess the power to transform themselves from pawns into independent players. Our future need not be dictated by others; with resolve, we can author it ourselves.
