Kremlin’s Recognition Of Taliban Could Fuel Geopolitical Tensions, Warns Afghan Leader

The meeting took place on 3 July in Khankendi, Azerbaijan, on the sidelines of the 17th meeting of foreign ministers of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), according to a statement from the Taliban’s presidential office.

During the talks, President Mirziyoyev reportedly expressed Uzbekistan’s willingness to invest in key sectors of Afghanistan’s economy, including railway infrastructure, textiles, cement, mining, and electricity.

Both parties agreed to establish a joint working group, led by Baradar and Uzbekistan’s prime minister, to monitor the implementation of future agreements. The working group will meet every three months to assess progress.

According to the Taliban’s statement, Uzbekistan committed to supporting major infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, including the Mazar-e-Sharif–Herat–Kandahar railway line, the construction of textile factories, cement plants, oil refineries, and salt mining operations. Tashkent also pledged to help expand electricity imports to Afghanistan via a 500-kilovolt transmission line extension.

Baradar urged continued engagement between Uzbekistan and the Taliban-led government, emphasising the importance of bilateral trade and transit links.

The Taliban further stated that Uzbekistan had agreed to facilitate the export of Afghan agricultural goods to Central Asia and Russia through Uzbek territory, assist with banking transactions, simplify visa issuance for Afghan nationals, and advance the development of the Termez International Trade Centre.

In a statement issued Friday, the anti-Taliban resistance group said Moscow’s engagement with the Taliban amounts to “formalising the status of terrorist groups” and risks emboldening regional militants including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Ansarullah Tajikistan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Islamic State-Khorasan, al-Qaida and Hizb ut-Tahrir.

The threat of terrorism and religious extremism at the gates of Central Asia is real and immediate, the AFF said. The group added that recognising the Taliban is a green light for like-minded factions now preparing to establish similar regimes in the region.

The front argued that the Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021 directly fuelled the resurgence of armed extremist networks across neighbouring states. Given the group’s ideological alignment with those organisations, the statement added, it is impossible to distinguish the Taliban from their twin, allied and co-operative terrorist groups.

AFF leaders warned that diplomatic acceptance of the Taliban by “a major, civilised country such as Russia” will further motivate militants to pursue cross-border ambitions and destabilise Central Asia.

Russia has not formally recognised the Taliban government but last month agreed to accept a Taliban-nominated ambassador in Moscow after removing the movement from its list of proscribed organisations, a step that has drawn criticism from Western governments and Afghan opposition factions alike.

Iranian media have voiced concern over strengthening ties between the Taliban and Azerbaijan, warning of potential security and geopolitical consequences for Tehran.

In an article published Thursday, 4 July, the Iranian news agency IRAF criticised the Taliban’s recent diplomatic outreach to Baku, following a visit by Abdul Ghani Baradar, the group’s deputy prime minister for economic affairs, to attend the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) summit in Azerbaijan.

According to IRAF, Baradar's visit and his formal request for Azerbaijan to accept a Taliban-appointed ambassador in Baku signals a move by both sides to deepen political and diplomatic relations under the guise of economic cooperation.

The article argued that the Taliban's closer engagement with Azerbaijan coincides with escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and could carry serious intelligence and security implications for Tehran. It suggested that Baku’s growing alignment with the Taliban reflects a broader vision for future economic ties, positioning Afghanistan as a key resource hub for Azerbaijan.

“Afghanistan is seen by Baku as a land of untapped resources that could support Azerbaijan’s economic ambitions,” the article said.

Baradar also extended an invitation to Azerbaijani officials to invest in Afghanistan’s oil and gas sector, railways, and renewable energy. During high-level meetings, he emphasised the importance of the Lapis Lazuli corridor and announced the Taliban’s plan to export coal to Türkiye via Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani officials reportedly welcomed the proposals and expressed readiness for joint investment and cooperation in key sectors, including mining and clean energy.

IRAF warned that the Taliban’s warming relationship with Azerbaijan, a country with known military ties to Israel, could have far-reaching political, economic, and security repercussions for Iran, particularly as Tehran faces the risk of renewed conflict in the region.

The article further suggested that the Taliban's growing economic diplomacy with Baku may signal a distancing from previous tacit alignment with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Habibi's family has long claimed that he is being held in Taliban custody. However, in a statement issued Thursday, 3 July, Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid said that an internal investigation, conducted at the request of the family, found no evidence that Habibi had been arrested by any Taliban-affiliated agency.

The United States has recently offered a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to the location, recovery, and return of Habibi. The offer was announced under the US State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme.

Mujahid stated that all Taliban departments, including the General Directorate of Intelligence, are committed to upholding detainees' rights and are obligated to refer all detainees to judicial authorities within a defined timeframe. He rejected US allegations that the Taliban’s intelligence agency is involved in Habibi’s disappearance.

Habibi previously served as head of the Civil Aviation Authority and later worked with the Asia Consultancy Group, a telecommunications firm in Kabul. He remained in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover in 2021 but was reportedly arrested just four days after returning from a trip abroad.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Taliban may have accused Habibi of collaborating with the CIA in locating Ayman al-Zawahiri, the former leader of al-Qaeda, who was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul’s Wazir Akbar Khan district days before Habibi’s disappearance.

In recent months, Adam Boehler, a former senior adviser to US President Donald Trump on hostage affairs, visited Kabul and held talks with Taliban officials regarding the release of Habibi and other American detainees. Following these negotiations, the Taliban released two American citizens, though Habibi’s fate remains unknown.

Other Americans previously held and later released by the Taliban include Ryan Corbett, William McEntee, George Glezmann and Faye Hall. Taliban officials have stated that foreign detainees held in the past were allowed regular contact with their families.

Mehdi Rajabi, the political and security deputy of the Taybad governor’s office, told local media that the volume of deportations has surged in recent days. He said 21050 Afghan migrants were returned to Afghanistan on 1 July alone, a figure he described as unprecedented.

Rajabi stated that the final deadline for undocumented migrants to leave the country is 6 July, adding that deportations will increase over the next three days.

He also said that many undocumented migrants have recently been transferred to holding camps in Hasanabad, in Shandiz district, and Sefid Sang, in Fariman, where they undergo legal exit procedures before being sent to the border.

According to Rajabi, around 250 buses are being used daily to transport Afghan migrants from across Iran to the Dogharoun border crossing, which lies in northeastern Iran near the city of Taybad.