Safe Return Of Political Exiles Could Rescue Afghanistan From The Abyss

Armed resistance, political organising abroad and international diplomatic pressure have failed to gain traction.

Could the homecoming of the Taliban’s political opponents offer a way out of the impasse?

Some optimists once hoped the Taliban’s return to power might soften their hard line and ultimately yield to pragmatic engagement with the outside world.

But their rule has only grown harsher, with repression deepening as the future looks more bleak than ever — particularly for women, youth and civil society activists.

Might there still be an opening for change? A gradual and conditional return of political and civil leaders to the country might be the only way.

A homecoming with international guarantees

The return of politicians and former Afghan jihad leaders would be a vital step in the path toward national reconciliation and reconstruction.

These figures who have played central roles in Afghanistan’s politics for decades must deploy anew their experience and influence in the service of their nation.

But their return must not repeat the failed patterns of the past. Reinserting them into executive power risks reproducing old conflicts. Instead, if their roles are redefined as advisory, supervisory and supportive, their presence could help rebuild public trust, strengthen social cohesion and facilitate a national dialogue.

Their return risks being perceived as surrendering to the Taliban, and might plausibly lead to their detention, house arrest or censorship.

Critics say this fate has befallen former President Hamid Karzai and former High Council for National Reconciliation Chairman Abdullah Abdullah.

To mitigate the risks, the returns must be accompanied by legal and political guarantees by international bodies like the United Nations.

A practical step would be to convene an international conference involving the UN Security Council, neighboring countries and key global stakeholders.

Within this framework, the Security Council could issue a resolution guaranteeing the safety and political rights of returnees.

If opponents of the Taliban choose not to return and accept the inherent risks, Afghanistan’s fate is all but sealed.

Contrary to the hopes of some, a lack of international legitimacy alone is unlikely to hinder the Taliban.

An international community increasingly concerned about cross-border instability and security threats may gradually move toward cautious engagement with the Taliban.

To win the trust of governments and alleviate security concerns, the Taliban may seek to boost intelligence and security cooperation with powers on the fence about recognition.

In this context, if opposition forces fail to return or to form a unified front, the risk of their complete exclusion from Afghanistan’s political scene becomes very real.

Rethinking the Path of Resistance

Alongside political figures, the safe return of influential women, civil society leaders, cultural figures and academics is also essential to redefining Afghanistan’s social and cultural order.

A comprehensive conference be held in Kabul — hosted by the United Nations and with the participation of key regional and global actors — could formally bless the return process.

This conference should establish a clear implementation framework that facilitates the re-engagement of civil society within the country.

The time has come for legitimate homegrown political and civil resistance to replace military strategies. The struggle must no longer be waged on the battlefield, but within the political and social realm.

This shift in direction is not a betrayal of ideals, but a sign of political maturity and a deep understanding of Afghanistan’s complex realities today.

If such an approach is supported collectively by Afghan groups at home and abroad, it will also garner international backing and strengthen leverage against the Taliban.

From Hibatullah's emirate to a new future

One of the most complex obstacles to political reform in Afghanistan is the authoritarian leadership of Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada.

A central spoiler for outreach to the international community, Akhundzada is also a barrier to more pluralism even within the Taliban itself.

The hard truth remains that the complete removal of the Taliban as a religious-political movement from the equation of power is neither feasible nor backed by regional powers.

It is therefore essential to convince factions within the Taliban that stability and prosperity are achievable only through political coexistence with other components of society.

This path cannot be pursued by dragging Hibatullah to the negotiating table — an approach proven fruitless by past experience — but rather by fostering trust and encouraging change from within the movement.

Backing youth and the private sector

Under current conditions, support for the private sector in the economic, educational, cultural, and social spheres — alongside the empowerment of women and girls through online education — can be a practical way to gradually improve the situation in Afghanistan.

The young, educated, and tech-savvy generation still holds immense potential for contribution and progress.

This generation, which grew up over the past two decades with access to education, technology, media, and global connectivity, has now either migrated or been pushed to the margins. Yet it remains the only genuine hope for rebuilding Afghanistan.

If this force is mobilized through initiatives such as online education, leadership in civil society, meaningful engagement with international institutions, and the creation of networks among a new generation of open-minded leaders free from the hatreds and prejudices of the past, it could lay the groundwork for real transformation.

Such change requires breaking from the traditional power elite and establishing a new space for collaboration and collective thinking.

However, this path is not possible without focused resistance and sustained domestic and international pressure. The Taliban’s behavior will only change if they are compelled. In the current environment, even the most basic demands — such as the reopening of schools and universities — seem achievable only through organized political pressure.

If a new political structure emerges from such a process, aligned with the will of the people, it could also gain international legitimacy.

In this context, global economic and developmental support should be explicitly tied to such a process, creating real incentives for the Taliban and other actors to embrace change.

Afghanistan can no longer afford to repeat the mistakes of the past. Every year of delay destroys thousands of lives, locks thousands of women inside their homes and deprives countless children of education.

Afghanistan can and must be rebuilt — not by force of arms, but through tolerance, reason, and the responsible return of the country’s intellectuals and leaders to the national stage. The path ahead is difficult, but achievable. It could be our last chance to save a nation.

Change is not possible without serious resistance, without collective power and without the will to act together. Dialogue alone is not enough.

The transformation we need requires strategic thinking and the willingness to try new methods where others have clearly failed.