According to the UN office a combination of the two is driving farmers back toward opium cultivation.
In a post on X, UNODC said that countries and relevant organisations should prioritise climate-resilience efforts to prevent a renewed surge in illicit crop production.
The agency noted earlier that poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is projected to decline by 20 percent in 2025, with farmers’ income from opium sales during the same period nearly halved.
Despite this decline, UNODC cautioned that the increasing return of Afghan migrants from neighbouring countries is adding strain to the labour market and limited resources, raising concerns about a potential rise in illegal opium cultivation.
The warning coincides with the opening of the COP30 global climate summit in Belém, Brazil, on Monday, where representatives from more than 190 countries are discussing emissions reductions, renewable energy expansion and aid for climate-vulnerable nations. The Taliban was not invited to the event.
According to the UN, Afghanistan is among the world’s 10 most climate-vulnerable countries, facing severe drought, floods, irregular rainfall and declining water supplies.