Taliban Policies Threaten Their Hold On Power, Says Russian Analyst
A senior Russian analyst says the Taliban’s current policies suggest the group’s rule in Afghanistan may not be sustainable and could lead to public dissatisfaction and unrest.
A senior Russian analyst says the Taliban’s current policies suggest the group’s rule in Afghanistan may not be sustainable and could lead to public dissatisfaction and unrest.
Rajab Safarov, director of the Centre for Contemporary Iranian Studies in Moscow, told Afghanistan International that the Taliban’s political approach indicates their grip on power will not last.
Referring to a recent book by Russian researcher Andrey Serenko, head of the head of the Russian Centre for Contemporary Afghanistan Studies, Safarov said the Taliban had developed in an environment where they pursued any action within their reach.
“Given the Taliban’s current policies, this situation will not last long,” he said.
In his book Taliban Intelligence Secrets, Serenko wrote that the Taliban have not fundamentally changed but have become “more cunning,” warning that trusting the group is dangerous for Afghanistan, the region and the wider world.
Safarov said the Taliban’s current legitimacy and opportunity could fade over time. He added that the Taliban could either disappear from the region’s geopolitical landscape or push the wider region into crisis. However, he said the group has so far taken neither decisive positive nor decisive negative steps in regional affairs.
Safarov also said neighbouring countries have not taken serious action toward the Taliban because they are preoccupied with ongoing crises and geopolitical rivalries.
Serenko previously warned in an interview with Afghanistan International that regional and other countries should not trust the Taliban, describing the group as an unreliable structure posing risks to Afghanistan, the region and the world.
Despite such warnings, Russia has been the first country to recognise the Taliban administration.
Safarov said some in Russia believe recognising the Taliban may have been premature. However, he added that the Russian public generally trusts Kremlin policies and has not shown widespread protest over the decision.
